Meteorologists are warning that 2026 is set to become one of the hottest years ever recorded, with global temperatures projected to rise more than 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, as unchecked fossil-fuel emissions continue to heat the planet and intensify extreme weather events.
According to the UK Met Office, its central forecast for 2026 is marginally cooler than the record-breaking 1.55°C warming recorded in 2024, yet still places the year among the four hottest since systematic records began in 1850. The agency expects global average temperatures in 2026 to range between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, underscoring the persistence of extraordinary heat.
Scientists caution that a growing “carbon blanket” enveloping the Earth is eroding the stable climatic conditions that have allowed human civilisations to flourish. This accumulation of greenhouse gases is amplifying heatwaves, floods, droughts, and storms, while increasing the likelihood of irreversible climate tipping points.
“The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4°C, and we expect 2026 to be the fourth consecutive year to cross this threshold,” said Adam Scaife, climate scientist at the Met Office and lead author of the forecast. “Before this recent surge, global temperatures had never surpassed 1.3°C.”
A decade ago, world leaders pledged under the Paris Agreement to limit long-term global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While this goal is assessed using a 30-year average—meaning it remains technically achievable—scientists stress that the increasing frequency of annual and monthly exceedances signals how rapidly the planet is approaching this critical boundary.
“2024 marked the first temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold, and our outlook for 2026 suggests that such exceedances may occur again,” noted Nick Dunstone, climate scientist at the Met Office. “This is a stark indication of how fast the world is converging on the Paris limit.”
Recent data reinforces these concerns. EU scientists have stated that 2025 is virtually certain to rank as the second- or third-warmest year on record, corroborating earlier projections from the World Meteorological Organisation. Meanwhile, data from Copernicus, the EU’s Earth observation programme, shows that average global temperatures from January to November were 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, matching the anomaly recorded in 2023, the second-hottest year on record.
Taken together, these forecasts reveal a sobering trajectory: the world is no longer approaching climate thresholds gradually—it is repeatedly pressing against them. Each successive year above 1.4°C narrows the margin for action, transforming the 1.5°C target from a distant ambition into an immediate test of political will and global resolve. Read More
News Credit: The Guardian
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