The morning coffee, a staple for millions worldwide, is now threatened by the growing impact of climate change. Last week, the price of quality arabica beans soared to its highest level in nearly 50 years due to concerns over Brazil’s poor harvest, exacerbated by extreme weather events. And it’s not just coffee: orange crops in Valencia, Spain, have been devastated by catastrophic floods, while olive oil prices have skyrocketed amid scorching Mediterranean heatwaves.
While wealthier nations may experience these effects as higher costs for luxuries, low-income households in both developed and developing countries face much graver consequences. In some regions, climate-induced disruptions drive food insecurity and hunger, creating ripple effects across global economies.
Scientists have long warned that global warming is disrupting agriculture. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events wreak havoc on staple crops like wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans. A UN report recently highlighted that these crops suffer from suboptimal growth under excessive heat, further exacerbated by diminishing water availability and spreading pests and diseases.
Wealthy nations can mitigate the impact in the short term through alternative sourcing and product substitutions. But the systemic challenges are becoming harder to ignore. Research from Communications Earth & Environment estimates that climate pressures could add 0.9 to 3.2 percentage points to global food price inflation over the next decade, depending on global temperature rises. In severely affected regions, these increases could be even more catastrophic.
Climate change disrupts production and hinders transportation. For example, the Panama Canal recently restricted the number of ships transiting daily due to low water levels, creating bottlenecks in global supply chains. These disruptions inject volatility into food systems, further destabilizing markets and contributing to price surges.
The cascading effects of climate change on food production and pricing are already here to stay, raising tough questions for policymakers. Traditional monetary policies, like raising interest rates, are ill-suited to address supply-side shocks driven by climate-induced shortages. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has called for rethinking these conventional tools in what she describes as “an age of shifts and breaks.”
Economists like Isabella Weber argue for unconventional approaches to managing food inflation. She proposes measures like price caps and creating buffer stocks for staple foods to counter corporations’ extraordinary pricing power during crises. Countries grappling with these challenges have also called for larger financial settlements from wealthier nations, a central demand at recent climate summits like COP29.
This stark reality underscores the urgent need to curb emissions and prioritize climate resilience. Policymakers must act swiftly to address this new era of food instability, ensuring that communities, particularly in vulnerable regions, are equipped to withstand the shocks ahead.
As the climate crisis reshapes the global food landscape, the need for coordinated international action has never been more evident. The question is no longer whether we can afford to act—but how we can afford not to.