Climate change is poised to sharply reduce global food production—even under moderate emissions scenarios—according to a new study published in Nature. By 2100, the world could lose 11% of the crop yields that currently supply two-thirds of all human calories, despite efforts to mitigate the impact.
Under present emission trends—where greenhouse gases peak by 2040 and slowly decline—global yield losses are projected to hit 8% by 2050. But if emissions continue unchecked, the losses could rise to nearly 25% by century’s end, severely threatening food security.
The research focused on six staple crops: corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, sorghum, and cassava. Together, they form the caloric backbone for billions of people. Alarmingly, the study found that every 1°C rise in global temperature equates to a loss of 120 food calories per person per day—almost 5% of daily intake.
The worst impacts will be felt at both ends of the agricultural spectrum: large-scale industrial farms in high-yield regions, such as North America, and subsistence farming communities that depend on marginal crops, like cassava. North America, in particular, could lose up to 20% of its crop yields under a moderate scenario and up to 40% if emissions remain high.
The study analysed data from over 12,000 agricultural regions across 55 countries, making it one of the most comprehensive forecasts to date.
The findings underscore a sobering truth: climate adaptation alone won’t be enough. Without urgent emissions cuts and resilient food system planning, the world risks entering an era of systemic food insecurity. Read More
News Credit: CTV News
Picture Credit: Mitchel, Man. (Source: Don Moore)